Colin Sebastian, a semi super duper smart analyst from Lazard Capital Markets, is predicting that
Halo 3 will make upwards of
$200 million rather quickly, becoming one of the largest product launches ever. And even though Sebastian doesn't state a time frame for his
Halo 3 $200 million in sales, we're guessing he's directly comparing his estimate to
Halo 2's $125 million first day sales record. So, in comparison to
Halo 2's numbers, it's very likely that the $200 million mark will be attainable as we can guarantee sales to be very, very good. Sebastian also goes on to mention that the million plus
Halo 3 pre-orders coupled with Microsoft's marketing efforts will help in reaching the $200 million milestone and move some Xbox 360 hardware. Analysts ... you gotta love 'em.
Reader Comments (Page 1 of 1)
BrianM @ Sep 14th 2007 10:35AM
1 MILLION Dollars!
DjDATZ @ Sep 14th 2007 10:35AM
That was my prediction when MS said they're going for $155 million in one day.
I think they'll do $200 Mill in the first day.
TORO @ Sep 14th 2007 10:43AM
Good, I think Spiderman 3 has the biggest opening weekend at $148 million...maybe this will get the H3 movie rolling again (although it would be a late release now, what's Peter Jackson working on again?)
Ciaran Gallagher @ Sep 14th 2007 11:02AM
I doubt it. At the very most between $150-175.
Jonah Falcon @ Sep 14th 2007 11:04AM
Halo 3: WE CAN PRINT OUR OWN MONEY!
Jonah Falcon @ Sep 14th 2007 11:05AM
http://www.gamestooge.com/2007/08/09/microsoft-can-commence-rolling-around-in-money-for-halo-3-part-ii/
John @ Sep 14th 2007 11:15AM
Yeah i am sure it will do that and maybe more. Its a huge game that will probably win game of the year.
Jonah Falcon @ Sep 14th 2007 11:21AM
I dunno about that. Mass Effect may sneak away with the prize.
Doc @ Sep 14th 2007 11:27AM
its obvious they'll make 200 Million. The legendary is only $130. and i know every fan boy and 12 year old kid are going to try to get that. plus the Limited is $70. sooo, i wouldnt be surprised. And they're going to beat Spidermans sales recored. a ticket is only like, $7. (depends where your at)
TORO @ Sep 14th 2007 11:35AM
$7 ticket Doc!??? That's a bargain where I'm at (Chicago), average around here is $10 :(
Fontez @ Sep 14th 2007 11:42AM
$10 ?!?!??!?!?
We pay $14 where I am !!! WTF ?!?!?!?!
I'm not gonna repeat all of the America bullshit....Breathe....................... ARRRRRRRGHHH !!!!
DemonG @ Sep 14th 2007 12:11PM
7 Dollars at my local cinema because I"m a 'student' at the college there, and have been for 6 years, and I've yet to attend that college.
Anyways, yeah, I think this game will break any and all milestones for any thing every downloaded.
Jason @ Sep 14th 2007 12:20PM
ok let's do some math :
US$200M / US$60 a pop = 3.33M copies sold.
1.0M preorders already accounted for so that leaves 2.3M that would have to sell on day one. How many retail outlets are selling this game? Every US Wal-Mart, Target, Gamestop, EB Games, Best Buy, Circuit City among other places.
Let's say Wal-Mart stocks it in 2500 stores, Target 1100, Best Buy 1400, Circuit City 600, Gamestop 4500 (store counts per Wikipedia)
ok, so at LEAST 2500+1100+1400+600+4500 locations in the US will have copies of Halo 3 on day 1.
That's about 10,000 retail outlets.
2.3M / 10,000 = 230 copies per location.
that's aggressive to say the least,
but i acknowledge the number of retail outlets may be understated by as much as half,
so cut the 230 per store to 115 per store - that's still a really agressive number ON TOP of all the preorders for a single day.
just to provide perspective, halo2 was $125M at a time when games cost $50.
That's 125M / 50 = 2.5M copies so it's not out of the question but it's still a massive jump of units sold. (3.3M up from 2.5M is a 33% increase)
couple that with this being less than 2 years after console launch as opposed to Halo 2's 3 years after console launch and the higher console price at the time of game release and I just don't see this $200M thing happening.
Jesse @ Sep 14th 2007 12:24PM
Ohh yeah this guy is a REAL genius 4 mill preorders X 50 = 200. OMG wow and that doesn't even figure for legendary editions. Super smart.
Jason @ Sep 14th 2007 12:48PM
last check there are 1M preorders not 4M
the legendary edition is not going to be the primary sku by any stretch of the imagination - hence the change should not be material to the overall numbers.
and thanks for the genius comment - i needed that to brighten my day.
Titwat @ Sep 14th 2007 1:00PM
Pre-orders have gone FAR past 4 million. I'm not sure if you guys know, but there live other people outside of the usa. And yes, they play games too!
NorCal05 @ Sep 14th 2007 1:01PM
I made a new, improved Halo 3 money shot:
http://tinyurl.com/3xqe2h
TORO @ Sep 14th 2007 1:40PM
I believe this figures relate to the US only, we're trying to break 1st day sales record of $125 mill (Halo 2) and $148 mill (Spiderman 3).
Drew @ Sep 14th 2007 2:16PM
"the legendary edition is not going to be the primary sku by any stretch of the imagination - hence the change should not be material to the overall numbers." Look, the fact you used the term "material" makes me think you're an accounting guy. I'm an accounting guy. But we can't ignore the "Finance" guys who say that the Legendary and Limited at $139 and $70 a pop do make a huge difference in the pricing and revenue scheme. And it does make a huge difference from the "Finance" perspective.
RandomHero @ Sep 14th 2007 4:59PM
"its obvious they'll make 200 Million. The legendary is only $130. and i know every fan boy and 12 year old kid are going to try to get that." umm arent you posting on a fanboy site hippie? this Proud fanboy ordered it way back when and I cannot wait.
Vocenoctum @ Sep 14th 2007 7:17PM
Hey Jason, in your locations you missed 7-11. I'm not sure how many units each will sell, but I do think there are a few 7-11's around. :)
Jason @ Sep 14th 2007 8:48PM
But we can't ignore the "Finance" guys who say that the Legendary and Limited at $139 and $70 a pop do make a huge difference in the pricing and revenue scheme. And it does make a huge difference from the "Finance" perspective.
Drew, actually I'm an SFA at a bank, not accounting, yuck. If you want to pigeon hole me, please refer to me as an economist. Thanks.
The materiality of the higher priced SKU's are insignificant due to the quantities produced and available for sale. Out of the 3.3M expected sales only a tiny fraction are going to be the "super" $130 SKU and the $60/$70 SKU's are identical to last time when they also had two SKU's so the differences wash out in the comparison.
Draw it up in Excel - you'll see what I mean.
Jason @ Sep 15th 2007 7:47AM
and how many copies of a $60 video game is a 7-11 going to stock?
3 per store? 6 per store? that's like ten times their average unit sale price. that doesn't make sense for 7-11 but i understand why they did it.