Analyst: PS3 to outsell 360 by more than 2:1 by 2012
by Richard Mitchell 
{ May 22nd 2008 at 1:00PM }
The reason: market perception. Analyst extraordinaire Michael Pachter gave his two cents, noting that Microsoft has "an image issue." Essentially, the 360, according to Pachter, is perceived as a console for hardcore gamers only, whereas the PS3 (and more specifically Sony) is perceived as family friendly. Aaron Greenberg, 360 product manager, naturally disagrees, noting that the Xbox 360 has more million-selling titles than either the Wii or PS3 and that the 360 has "the largest game lineup, and the most exclusive titles."
Another interesting point made by Pachter is that price is a huge factor in console sales. Interesting, because the Xbox 360 (we're fairly certain) will always have a price advantage over the PS3, and the low-end Xbox 360 (the Arcade) could easily meet the Wii's (current) $250 price point before 2008 is out. "Consumers just have this image that consoles cost $199 or less," said Pachter. Considering that the 360 will almost definitely hit $199 before the PS3, are there really that many people just waiting for the PS3 to get cheaper, all other consoles be damned? Guess we'll find out in four years or so.
Hit the "Source" link for the complete article.
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Reader Comments (Page 1 of 2)
Harrison @ May 22nd 2008 1:05PM
Well, do you really think people will buy 360's when they can get an xbox 720 in 2010 or 2011? I would assume an early release of the next MS console would be a large factor in these numbers.
Juice @ May 23rd 2008 12:17PM
Games usually drive console sales. What does Sony or Wii have on the Horizon? MGS4? Little Big Planet? XBOX has Gears2 and GTA4 DLC. And that's just in the near future. I dunno, I think the PS3 is a great console and all but I definitely don't see the sales being that big of a gap...
Nintendo is Fail @ May 22nd 2008 1:08PM
So by the time it gets outsold by more than 2:1 the next Xbox is going to be out?
But wow if these numbers are true then the Xbox 360 is going to get its ass kicked
PerfectStrategy @ May 22nd 2008 2:02PM
The numbers aren't true, they are predictions.
Look at how many months Pachter has been wrong by predicting PS3 to outsell the 360.
We're 360 gamers, we LOVE proving analysts wrong and shaking up the previous playstation stranglehold on the industry.
And I think Xbox 360 will continue to make these analysts look foolish just like it has ever since it launched.
Neuromancer @ May 22nd 2008 2:06PM
This analyist has a horrible track record of being accurate in his predictions, Kotaku pegged him being right 2 out 8 times. You could train a chimp to answer yes/no questions and it'd be right more often than Pidgeon.
http://kotaku.com/358091/analyzing-the-analysts-episode-two
Boff @ May 23rd 2008 5:27AM
Or even train a pigeon?
Enon777 @ May 22nd 2008 1:10PM
Aahhh yesssss, more fuel for the fanboy flame!!! Mmmuuuaaahhhahahahahaha!!!
Chester @ May 22nd 2008 1:09PM
who the hell is still buying xbox 360's in 2012?
ogvor @ May 22nd 2008 3:35PM
The same people who bought PS2s in 2007/2008. That console was selling more than the PS3 for over a year. When the Xbox 360 is 150$, a lot more people will buy it than those who bought it for 300$-400$.
Dick @ May 22nd 2008 1:12PM
This analyst's assertion that PS3 is more family friendly than 360 holds no water. I see barely any family friendly titles on PS3 now or in the pipeline, save for the regurgitated movie-cum-video game.
Yet 360 has all of the same movie/video game tie in garbage, as well as the lego series', all the sports, viva pinata, etc...
EmptyEnergy @ May 22nd 2008 1:14PM
Isn't the rumor the next M$ Console will be out by 2010?
Side note: the world ends 2012 according to the Mayan calendar.
Munkcy @ May 22nd 2008 2:44PM
Xbox is going to sell more than PS3, and that's why the world is going to end in 2012. The last sign of the apocalypse is Microsoft winning a console war over Sony. I'm not quite sure how the Mayan's knew that though, but they probably played the Wii anyways.
victor360hd @ May 22nd 2008 1:14PM
post in the ps3 fanboy not here !!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
vanhelsingh @ May 22nd 2008 1:16PM
The thing is, a 360 owner would buy a PS3, but I doubt a PS3 owner would buy a 360.
HEY!!!! @ May 22nd 2008 1:42PM
i agree
JimyD @ May 22nd 2008 1:57PM
I owned a PS3 and then bought an Xbox 360 when Microsoft had its free Halo 3 deal at the end of '07. I'm glad I did since I had a Blu-ray drive crap out on me and got tired of staring at a "Download Settings" screen for CoD4 multiplayer. I still enjoy using my fixed PS3 (MLB08: The Show, Warhawk, UT3 and Ratchet & Clank) but it's great to also have an Xbox 360 (Halo 3, CoD4, Gears of War, etc.). Bottom line - you get the best of both console worlds.
smallsbig @ May 22nd 2008 2:33PM
I had in this order ... FIRST a Wii ... Next a PS3 ... and Last an xbox 360
vanhelsingh @ May 22nd 2008 2:34PM
the only reason a PS3 owner would get a 360 would be to play exclusives such as GoW, Halo or Fable. Otherwise, there is nothing attractive about it.
elbaso @ May 22nd 2008 3:11PM
I think that people who have the scratch to buy two or even all three consoles are a small minority of the market.
I doubt you'll see many XBox306 & PS3 households. You're much more likely to see either of those two with a Wii, since they serve different niches.
andyg8180 @ May 22nd 2008 1:17PM
every anal-yst has been boasting big numbers for the ps3 since day 1... 2 years and counting... still waiting for one of those predictions to hold merit...
I think they are going over how the PS2 trends were and placing them on the PS3... now, if you look at it like that, it makes sense... but they fail to realize that the xbox 1 wasnt really a force to be reckoned with at that time...
Or they are speculating blu-ray players... as its sole purpose...
I hate anal-ysts... they suck... Who was it that quit about a week ago because his PS3 predictions kept getting squashed? lol
macktheking1027 @ May 22nd 2008 10:39PM
I agree, all of the PS3 promises that has been coming out of analysts asses for the past year is really getting old. The PS3 reminds me of a car that wont start no matter how much you turn the key.
Ejab @ May 22nd 2008 1:18PM
Dumbass article, X3f is starting to suck, stop posting garbage you idiots.
Ejab @ May 22nd 2008 1:53PM
X3F is starting to turn into N4G
Jonah Falcon @ May 22nd 2008 1:20PM
Patcher? Again? This guy keeps spouting out these predictions and is always WRONG.
David W. @ May 22nd 2008 1:33PM
dude...chill
Etchasketchist @ May 22nd 2008 1:21PM
Frankly, I could care less. I'd rather be where the hardcore gamers are. I don't want to play a family friendly console. My 360 has, in just the one year I've owned it, been the best console experience I've had since I unboxed my first Atari 2600. And I can play Xevious on my 360 just like I did on that old Atari. So the 360 is a dream come true for me (despite its admitted flaws) and if the PS3 and the Wii want to beat it in sales, so be it. I don't like the most popular movies or most popular bands, why should I care that my console isn't the most popular?
JohnnyRook82 @ May 22nd 2008 1:29PM
Amen.
elbaso @ May 22nd 2008 3:16PM
If your console is less popular, then developers are less likely to develop games for it, since they'd prefer to go after the largest market possible.
Developing for the 360 is easier, especially for Windows developers, since the tools are pretty much the same. The PS3 is harder to develop for, but if it does start to get a larger market share, the game developers will start to pay more attention.
Ysleiro @ May 30th 2008 4:13PM
@el Baso: While you are correct there is also another factor as to whom devs will dev for.
Right now as it seems 360 sells exponentially more games than PS3. This means that even if there were the same amount of PS3s and 360s on the market 360 would still sell more games.
Go to VGchartz.com/games/
Pick PS3 and sort by sales, then do the same for 360. The difference is ginormous. I understand 360 has been out longer but the difference in console sales is not equal to the difference in games sales.
Thus 360 is just selling more. 3 times as more to be exact.
Etchasketchist @ May 22nd 2008 4:11PM
@el baso
I know. I get it. But I'm saying, it doesn't matter. I got my good games already. If in 3 years, all the good games are coming out on PS3 and Wii exclusively, I'll think about picking one up. But I'm good for now and for the foreseeable future.
Ryan Hartman @ May 22nd 2008 1:25PM
Two pro PS3 topics in a row? WTFBBQWMD?!?!?!?!?!
Go back to PS3fanboy, traitor, and peddle your wares somewhere else.
Does dustin work for Sony Defense force on the side or something?
*covers ears* Lalalalalala this analyst is wrong lalalalalala
Terry Gruggen @ May 22nd 2008 1:25PM
Ridiculous assumption by pencil pushers. If they were true gamers, they would not parade their ignorance like this. A word of advice to the analysts: Dogs can chase cars but they cannot drive them.
Trogdor @ May 22nd 2008 1:26PM
This crap is such a waste of time. I don't even think these people should get paid for what they do, a monkey could do it and be just as accurate.
I don't see the PS3 selling anywhere near 100 million unless it drops the cost to $199 by the end of next year (which is unlikely). Blu Ray players should be less than $200 soon so the benefit of the PS3 as a movie player will decrease.
c4v3man @ May 22nd 2008 1:30PM
Seems like poor analysis... with greater adoption of blue ray, dedicated players will fall in price. Once people are able to buy a blu-ray player for $150 or so, you'll see fewer PS3 sales. Also, who knows, Nintendo might come out with a new console. The gamecube/wii is overdue for a refresh, and they'd be foolish to not capitalize on the HD market, as it continues to develop into the next decade. It doesn't need to be detailed/smooth/realistic, just something which doesn't look terrible when played on a large TV. They can still keep it cheap while offering higher resolution.
Nothing technology-wise can be predicted that far out. Heck, weren't we supposed to be rocking 10Ghz (per core) processors by now?
Deezul @ May 22nd 2008 1:30PM
What I find amazing is they really believe the PS3 is more family friendly than a Wii? My 71 year old mother played the Wii, and was a bit disappointed during a recent visit that I had sold it. But get a PS3? Very unlikely. And I won't put anything else Sony in my house. Just my little boycott of Sony. Never owned any Playstation, and have no desire to.
Matthew @ May 22nd 2008 1:31PM
The may sell more PS3 may sell more consoles, but the 360 will always sell more games.
I know about 6 people who have a PS3 for the BluRay capabilities, but could care less about the gaming aspect. Most don't even know what games to get for it, the rest are waiting for either MGS or FF.
And I agree with EtchaSketch, the 360 is the best console I've owned since my original NES.
Nick @ May 22nd 2008 1:46PM
In 2012 my Xbox 360 will be as useful as my 2001 Xbox is today...Not very useful.
marauder800 @ May 22nd 2008 1:46PM
I already have my consoles so this doesn't phase me a bit. I'd like to see sales figures more evenly distributed so both systems are guaranteed great games, and a successor.
adam @ May 22nd 2008 1:51PM
I have to laugh at all the morons over at vgchartz.They get all hyped on sales etc.Sure something may sell more but does that mean its better?
Would you trade your 360 for a wii cuz last time i checked the wii was outselling both.
The point is i could care less about brand loyalty.I buy products because there in fact superior and i know im getting my moneys worth.I have a sony tv because they make great tvs i have a 360 because microsoft knows gaming better than anybody and how to provide the best os possible in a gaming system.
So if people buy something because its populer so be it.They wanna keep buying ipods when the zune is better go right ahead.They wanna spend 100 dollars on pants that have the same quality as walmart pants so be it.They wanna buy wii because it sells more and its the cool thing to do fine.
There all gonna be missing out period.
The 360 is the best console i have ever owned since my dreamcast and i will tell you right now i have owned almsot all consoles and here is is my list of the best i have ever owned.
nes
tg16
sega genesis
neogeo aes
saturn
n64
dreamcast
xbox360
Those are the best consoles i have ever owned.Not all sold well and werent populer but they had the best games and performed the best for me those generations.
high sales means squat performance iand games is what matters.
InvisiMan @ May 22nd 2008 1:52PM
..."whereas the PS3 (and more specifically Sony) is perceived as family friendly."
LOL! Yeah, I'd like to see the average family mom INSTALL games with ease on a PS3!!!
There are far more family titles on the 360 (especially if you consider the Live Arcade games).
Matt @ May 22nd 2008 2:05PM
Well, duh, the next Xbox comes out in 2010. By then, the PS3 will probably be a slim $199 unit and will be kickin ass. Of course, MS will be kicking ass too, but in the next generation.
MS and Sony have a different vision for years down the road. Despite what MS claims, I doubt they'll support the 360 for many years down the road like Sony supports the PS2 and ultimately PS3.
There will be a $199 Xbox 360 later this year, but there will never be a slim version or major redesign of the case. Again, different visions. MS will be first to market once again and now by a 2 year jump this next time around.
nieker @ May 22nd 2008 3:01PM
The Valhalla update is rumored to be a slim version since it will probably merge the cpu and gpu on 1 chip
http://xbox.joystiq.com/2008/05/12/rumor-xbox-540-360-slim-in-2009/
dunnypop @ May 22nd 2008 2:06PM
I don't think Microsoft will let that happen. if anything the 360 should be around $200 so that they can kill the ps3 competition.
On the image issue, my 360 has been so faulty when playing Rainbow 6 2, Rock Band and GTA 4. I've been getting dirty disc errors like crazy, and this was a replacement 360 as well. Frustrating, but the system is still a lot more fun than the ps3.
I see the wii dying down... most of the people that I know who own a wii do not play it or they've sold it. Lack of titles, lack of games, and lack of anything higher than 480p.
Tony @ May 22nd 2008 2:11PM
Here's the thing about the PS3 selling neck and neck with the 360... If I sold 4,000,000 of something before you even get to the market in the US and we're selling around the same from then on, you're not going to surpass me. I'm not sure how people don't get this concept.
The PS3 was doing so poorly in this country that apparently selling literally 10,000 more units than the 360 here is an upset. Those two months of sales where Sony was besting Microsoft in US hardware sales accounted for around 20,000 units total, if that. I just don't see how that matters, regardless as to how true Microsoft's shortage claims were true.
Until the PS3 regularly outsells the 360 in the US by a significant margin, this isn't going to change. It hasn't happened yet. I don't know if Metal Gear Solid 4 will be the game to do it, but considering the sales of 3 I'd be really surprised.
They're certainly doing well elsewhere and that's where I can see the PS3 beating out the 360 overall. Microsoft losing the worldwide market is something I think is honestly inevitable at this point. But at an over 2:1 ratio where the 360 is at a respectable 40,000,000 units? I really just don't see that happening.
Particularly on the basis of the PS3 being "family friendly". All that's really family friendly about is that it plays Bluray movies. It's certainly not games, as the system doesn't really have much in the pipeline for that market compared to the 360. I suppose that is a win over what the 360 offers in that sense, but is that enough to explain this increase?
The DVD player of the PS2 certainly helped it early on, but it didn't matter much a couple of years in when other players became cheaper. At the same time, by then the PS2 had a shitload of great games and it didnt' matter much. I guess the same could happen with the PS3, but they're far from matching the sales successes of that system in the same timespan.
Personally, I think it's pretty amazing that the third place console can even be projected to sell 40,000,000 units. This sort of stuff was unheard of in previous generations when it always wound up to be a two console race. I don't think many people predicted Microsoft could jump in and do this well, even if it's not as well as the established companies.
Matt @ May 22nd 2008 2:11PM
I agree. I have a friend who bought a PS3 primarily for blu-ray. I, too, have contemplated a PS3 and feel I will ultimately get one but blu ray movies are the major factor for me.
There is an obvious correlation between the surge in PS3 sales and the Blu Ray victory.
nieker @ May 22nd 2008 2:21PM
"the low-end Xbox 360 (the Arcade) could easily meet the Wii's (current) $250 price point before 2008 is out"
That's allready happening in certain European countries (if not all of them). Arcade costs €199, while the wii still costs €250
312$ vs 392$ with the current currency that is.
smallsbig @ May 22nd 2008 2:26PM
are they seriously saying that XBox is percieved as the "hardcore" console and that is why it is having issues? I say that the Xbox is perceived as shitty quality and may die on you easily . THAT is the hurdle Microsoft needs to get over. This extended warantee "gift" is just not enough . And 360 owners are too forgiving of them . I own all three consoles and there are things I enjoy greatly about them all ... well ... besides my wii ... I do not touch that for a long time . Microsoft released crap and we all better hope they dont rush the next console as well so we end up with more crap. 2010? i dont care if it comes in 2012 as long as I dont have to concern myself with how to get my third console after warantee because my second just died. Fanboy I am not . I am simply an adult who luckily makes enough scratch to know the joy of all consoles . Ask yourself ... am I right? Honestly
DjDATZ @ May 22nd 2008 2:21PM
Wow...Linear extrapolation of the 360's and the PS3's sales data? Fuckin bullshit.
Whoever made this chart has NO clue about economics, the marketplace, the current state of consoles, nor statistics. It's like they were pulling future numbers out of a hat... Who's to say that the PS3 will have such a drastic slowdown in sales in 2010, but then they pick up like crazy in 2011? Maybe the PS3'll have it's time of the month that year so it won't be able to sell fast enough.
Van Faulk @ May 22nd 2008 2:49PM
I thin that has less to do with image and mor eto do with the differences between fans. Xbox fans go where the great games are. And thus if there is a great game on another system, we are gonna want to play it.
Sony fans are a pack of psychotic fanatics who are still trying to convince people that haze and Lair are GOTY contenders.
Andrew @ May 22nd 2008 3:20PM
Is today flame war Thursday? Seems everything that is getting posted is flame war bait.